{
 "metadata": {
  "name": "AI recommendation stability series 2026: how much an AI engine changes what it recommends from one week to the next",
  "author": "Vincent Wesley Couey, DeepSynthesis",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "source": "tracker/snapshots/*.json (frozen weekly captures of the AI Recommendation Audit, 16 B2B and GTM categories)",
  "builtFrom": [
   "2026-W29.json",
   "2026-W30.json",
   "2026-W31.json",
   "2026-W34.json",
   "2026-W36.json",
   "2026-W39.json",
   "2026-W40.json",
   "2026-W41.json",
   "2026-W42.json",
   "2026-W43.json",
   "2026-W44.json"
  ],
  "builtAtUtc": "2026-10-28T06:29:43.937Z",
  "method": "For each engine, adjacent captured weeks are compared category by category: top pick unchanged (1 or 0), and the share of the top 3 and top 5 that carried over. Tool names are normalised with the same canonicalisation that scored the snapshots. Intervals are 95% bootstrap intervals over the 16 categories, seeded.",
  "limits": [
   "Churn is an UPPER bound: aliases the canonicalisation does not merge count as a change. Two unambiguous same-product spellings (ChatGPT Enterprise with OpenAI ChatGPT Enterprise, Dialogflow with Google Dialogflow) are merged for this series only; other look-alikes that may be different products are left apart. Of 166 top-5 departures across adjacent weeks, only 18 had a same-looking arrival, so most churn is real replacement and not spelling.",
   "One capture per question per week. Part of any week-to-week change is the engine's own run-to-run noise; the tracker's cited noise floor (a second run of the same week) is reported in the tracker snapshot, not re-measured here.",
   "Only engines captured in both weeks of a pair are compared; a skipped week is recorded as a gap and never bridged.",
   "Model-memory engines only for most weeks: these are what a model says from training, not live web results, unless the engine label says grounded."
  ],
  "engines": {
   "groq": {
    "label": "Llama 3.3 70B via Groq (model memory)",
    "weeksCaptured": 4,
    "adjacentPairs": 2
   },
   "gptoss": {
    "label": "GPT-OSS 120B (OpenAI open weights, model memory)",
    "weeksCaptured": 11,
    "adjacentPairs": 7
   },
   "gemini-ungrounded": {
    "label": "Gemini 2.5 Flash (no search / model memory)",
    "weeksCaptured": 6,
    "adjacentPairs": 2
   },
   "qwen": {
    "label": "Qwen 3.6 (Alibaba, model memory)",
    "weeksCaptured": 1,
    "adjacentPairs": 0
   },
   "gemini-grounded-lite": {
    "label": "Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite (grounded)",
    "weeksCaptured": 1,
    "adjacentPairs": 0
   }
  }
 },
 "engines": {
  "groq": {
   "label": "Llama 3.3 70B via Groq (model memory)",
   "weeksCaptured": [
    "2026-W29",
    "2026-W30",
    "2026-W31",
    "2026-W34"
   ],
   "pairs": 3,
   "adjacentPairs": 2,
   "gaps": [
    {
     "from": "2026-W31",
     "to": "2026-W34",
     "weeksApart": 3
    }
   ],
   "summaryAdjacentWeeks": {
    "top1Stability": {
     "value": 0.969,
     "range": [
      0.938,
      1
     ]
    },
    "top3Overlap": {
     "value": 0.938
    },
    "top5Overlap": {
     "value": 0.895
    }
   },
   "pairsDetail": [
    {
     "from": "2026-W29",
     "to": "2026-W30",
     "fromDate": "2026-07-18",
     "toDate": "2026-07-20",
     "weeksApart": 1,
     "adjacent": true,
     "categories": 16,
     "top1Stability": {
      "value": 1,
      "ci95": [
       1,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top3Overlap": {
      "value": 0.938,
      "ci95": [
       0.833,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top5Overlap": {
      "value": 0.856,
      "ci95": [
       0.778,
       0.931
      ]
     },
     "perCategory": [
      {
       "category": "ai-copywriting",
       "topBefore": "Jasper",
       "topAfter": "Jasper",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "crm",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "email-marketing",
       "topBefore": "Mailchimp",
       "topAfter": "Mailchimp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "seo-tools",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.333,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "sales-engagement",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "product-analytics",
       "topBefore": "Amplitude",
       "topAfter": "Amplitude",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "project-management",
       "topBefore": "Asana",
       "topAfter": "Asana",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "customer-support",
       "topBefore": "Zendesk",
       "topAfter": "Zendesk",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "social-media-management",
       "topBefore": "Hootsuite",
       "topAfter": "Hootsuite",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "landing-page-builders",
       "topBefore": "Unbounce",
       "topAfter": "Unbounce",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "lead-generation",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "marketing-automation",
       "topBefore": "Marketo",
       "topAfter": "Marketo",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "ai-chatbots",
       "topBefore": "Google Dialogflow",
       "topAfter": "Google Dialogflow",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "scheduling",
       "topBefore": "Calendly",
       "topAfter": "Calendly",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "survey-forms",
       "topBefore": "SurveyMonkey",
       "topAfter": "SurveyMonkey",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "from": "2026-W30",
     "to": "2026-W31",
     "fromDate": "2026-07-20",
     "toDate": "2026-07-27",
     "weeksApart": 1,
     "adjacent": true,
     "categories": 16,
     "top1Stability": {
      "value": 0.938,
      "ci95": [
       0.813,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top3Overlap": {
      "value": 0.938,
      "ci95": [
       0.854,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top5Overlap": {
      "value": 0.934,
      "ci95": [
       0.884,
       0.975
      ]
     },
     "perCategory": [
      {
       "category": "ai-copywriting",
       "topBefore": "Jasper",
       "topAfter": "Jasper",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "crm",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "email-marketing",
       "topBefore": "Mailchimp",
       "topAfter": "Mailchimp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "seo-tools",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.333,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "sales-engagement",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "product-analytics",
       "topBefore": "Amplitude",
       "topAfter": "Google Analytics",
       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "project-management",
       "topBefore": "Asana",
       "topAfter": "Asana",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "customer-support",
       "topBefore": "Zendesk",
       "topAfter": "Zendesk",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "social-media-management",
       "topBefore": "Hootsuite",
       "topAfter": "Hootsuite",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "landing-page-builders",
       "topBefore": "Unbounce",
       "topAfter": "Unbounce",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "lead-generation",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "marketing-automation",
       "topBefore": "Marketo",
       "topAfter": "Marketo",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "ai-chatbots",
       "topBefore": "Google Dialogflow",
       "topAfter": "Google Dialogflow",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "scheduling",
       "topBefore": "Calendly",
       "topAfter": "Calendly",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "survey-forms",
       "topBefore": "SurveyMonkey",
       "topAfter": "SurveyMonkey",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "from": "2026-W31",
     "to": "2026-W34",
     "fromDate": "2026-07-27",
     "toDate": "2026-08-17",
     "weeksApart": 3,
     "adjacent": false,
     "categories": 16,
     "top1Stability": {
      "value": 1,
      "ci95": [
       1,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top3Overlap": {
      "value": 0.917,
      "ci95": [
       0.854,
       0.979
      ]
     },
     "top5Overlap": {
      "value": 0.866,
      "ci95": [
       0.8,
       0.919
      ]
     },
     "perCategory": [
      {
       "category": "ai-copywriting",
       "topBefore": "Jasper",
       "topAfter": "Jasper",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "crm",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "email-marketing",
       "topBefore": "Mailchimp",
       "topAfter": "Mailchimp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "seo-tools",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "sales-engagement",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "product-analytics",
       "topBefore": "Google Analytics",
       "topAfter": "Google Analytics",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "project-management",
       "topBefore": "Asana",
       "topAfter": "Asana",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "customer-support",
       "topBefore": "Zendesk",
       "topAfter": "Zendesk",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "social-media-management",
       "topBefore": "Hootsuite",
       "topAfter": "Hootsuite",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "landing-page-builders",
       "topBefore": "Unbounce",
       "topAfter": "Unbounce",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "lead-generation",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "marketing-automation",
       "topBefore": "Marketo",
       "topAfter": "Marketo",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.75
      },
      {
       "category": "ai-chatbots",
       "topBefore": "Google Dialogflow",
       "topAfter": "Google Dialogflow",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "scheduling",
       "topBefore": "Calendly",
       "topAfter": "Calendly",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "survey-forms",
       "topBefore": "SurveyMonkey",
       "topAfter": "SurveyMonkey",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  "gptoss": {
   "label": "GPT-OSS 120B (OpenAI open weights, model memory)",
   "weeksCaptured": [
    "2026-W29",
    "2026-W30",
    "2026-W31",
    "2026-W34",
    "2026-W36",
    "2026-W39",
    "2026-W40",
    "2026-W41",
    "2026-W42",
    "2026-W43",
    "2026-W44"
   ],
   "pairs": 10,
   "adjacentPairs": 7,
   "gaps": [
    {
     "from": "2026-W31",
     "to": "2026-W34",
     "weeksApart": 3
    },
    {
     "from": "2026-W34",
     "to": "2026-W36",
     "weeksApart": 2
    },
    {
     "from": "2026-W36",
     "to": "2026-W39",
     "weeksApart": 3
    }
   ],
   "summaryAdjacentWeeks": {
    "top1Stability": {
     "value": 0.777,
     "range": [
      0.625,
      0.938
     ]
    },
    "top3Overlap": {
     "value": 0.81
    },
    "top5Overlap": {
     "value": 0.786
    }
   },
   "pairsDetail": [
    {
     "from": "2026-W29",
     "to": "2026-W30",
     "fromDate": "2026-07-18",
     "toDate": "2026-07-20",
     "weeksApart": 1,
     "adjacent": true,
     "categories": 16,
     "top1Stability": {
      "value": 0.938,
      "ci95": [
       0.813,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top3Overlap": {
      "value": 0.771,
      "ci95": [
       0.625,
       0.896
      ]
     },
     "top5Overlap": {
      "value": 0.775,
      "ci95": [
       0.663,
       0.875
      ]
     },
     "perCategory": [
      {
       "category": "ai-copywriting",
       "topBefore": "Jasper",
       "topAfter": "Jasper",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "crm",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "email-marketing",
       "topBefore": "Mailchimp",
       "topAfter": "Mailchimp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "seo-tools",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
       "topBefore": "Yext",
       "topAfter": "Surfer",
       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 0,
       "top5Overlap": 0.2
      },
      {
       "category": "sales-engagement",
       "topBefore": "Outreach",
       "topAfter": "Outreach",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "product-analytics",
       "topBefore": "Amplitude",
       "topAfter": "Amplitude",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "project-management",
       "topBefore": "ClickUp",
       "topAfter": "ClickUp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "customer-support",
       "topBefore": "Zendesk",
       "topAfter": "Zendesk",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "social-media-management",
       "topBefore": "Buffer",
       "topAfter": "Buffer",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "landing-page-builders",
       "topBefore": "Unbounce",
       "topAfter": "Unbounce",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "lead-generation",
       "topBefore": "Apollo.io",
       "topAfter": "Apollo.io",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "marketing-automation",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "ai-chatbots",
       "topBefore": "ChatGPT",
       "topAfter": "ChatGPT",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
      },
      {
       "category": "scheduling",
       "topBefore": "Calendly",
       "topAfter": "Calendly",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.333,
       "top5Overlap": 0.4
      },
      {
       "category": "survey-forms",
       "topBefore": "Typeform",
       "topAfter": "Typeform",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "from": "2026-W30",
     "to": "2026-W31",
     "fromDate": "2026-07-20",
     "toDate": "2026-07-27",
     "weeksApart": 1,
     "adjacent": true,
     "categories": 16,
     "top1Stability": {
      "value": 0.875,
      "ci95": [
       0.688,
       1
      ]
     },
     "top3Overlap": {
      "value": 0.792,
      "ci95": [
       0.646,
       0.917
      ]
     },
     "top5Overlap": {
      "value": 0.8,
      "ci95": [
       0.688,
       0.9
      ]
     },
     "perCategory": [
      {
       "category": "ai-copywriting",
       "topBefore": "Jasper",
       "topAfter": "Jasper",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "crm",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
       "topAfter": "HubSpot",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "email-marketing",
       "topBefore": "Mailchimp",
       "topAfter": "Mailchimp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "seo-tools",
       "topBefore": "Ahrefs",
       "topAfter": "Ahrefs",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
       "topBefore": "Surfer",
       "topAfter": "Yext",
       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 0,
       "top5Overlap": 0.2
      },
      {
       "category": "sales-engagement",
       "topBefore": "Outreach",
       "topAfter": "Outreach",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "product-analytics",
       "topBefore": "Amplitude",
       "topAfter": "Amplitude",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
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       "top5Overlap": 0.6
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       "top5Overlap": 0.8
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      {
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      {
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      {
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      {
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       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
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       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
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      {
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       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      }
     ]
    },
    {
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     "to": "2026-W44",
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     "toDate": "2026-10-27",
     "weeksApart": 1,
     "adjacent": true,
     "categories": 16,
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     "top5Overlap": {
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     "perCategory": [
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      {
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      {
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      {
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       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "geo-ai-visibility",
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       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 0.333,
       "top5Overlap": 0.6
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      {
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      {
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       "topAfter": "Amplitude",
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       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
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      {
       "category": "project-management",
       "topBefore": "ClickUp",
       "topAfter": "ClickUp",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "customer-support",
       "topBefore": "Freshdesk",
       "topAfter": "Zendesk",
       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 0.8
      },
      {
       "category": "social-media-management",
       "topBefore": "Buffer",
       "topAfter": "Hootsuite",
       "top1Same": false,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
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      {
       "category": "landing-page-builders",
       "topBefore": "Unbounce",
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       "top5Overlap": 0.6
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      {
       "category": "lead-generation",
       "topBefore": "Apollo.io",
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       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "marketing-automation",
       "topBefore": "HubSpot",
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       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 1,
       "top5Overlap": 1
      },
      {
       "category": "ai-chatbots",
       "topBefore": "ChatGPT",
       "topAfter": "ChatGPT",
       "top1Same": true,
       "top3Overlap": 0.667,
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      },
      {
       "category": "scheduling",
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       "top1Same": true,
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      {
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  "gemini-ungrounded": {
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   "weeksCaptured": [
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    "2026-W31",
    "2026-W34",
    "2026-W36",
    "2026-W39",
    "2026-W40"
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   "adjacentPairs": 2,
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     "weeksApart": 3
    },
    {
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     "to": "2026-W36",
     "weeksApart": 2
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    {
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     "to": "2026-W39",
     "weeksApart": 3
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   ],
   "summaryAdjacentWeeks": {
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    "top3Overlap": {
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     "top5Overlap": {
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  "qwen": {
   "label": "Qwen 3.6 (Alibaba, model memory)",
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   "gaps": [],
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   "pairsDetail": []
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   "pairsDetail": []
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}